U.S. light duty vehicles – outlook/comparison with EIA

Key measures of the U.S. light duty vehicle fleet, and the fuel demand outlook to 2030, are on the chart.

First, as shown on the chart, ExxonMobil (in green) expects new vehicle fuel economy to improve at about 2 percent per year on average from 2005 to 2030. This reflects ongoing efficiency improvements in conventional vehicles, plus an increase in the number of hybrids and other advanced vehicles.

The chart on the bottom left shows the outlook for growth of the U.S. fleet, measured in light duty vehicles per 1000 people. Growth is expected to be very modest, as the size of the fleet is nearing saturation. In fact, over the last five years, per-capita growth has been only about 0.1 percent per year.

The impact of these factors is reflected on the right with ExxonMobil’s outlook for light duty vehicle fuel demand to 2030 shown in green. Fuel demand is expected to reach a plateau and then turn down, consistent with significant fuel economy gains and a very modest increase in the total fleet.

The charts highlight significant differences between ExxonMobil’s outlook and the outlook of the U.S. government — specifically the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The gray lines show the EIA’s assumptions according to its Annual Energy Outlook 2007. First, on the top left, the EIA shows only marginal fuel economy gains for new cars. Secondly, the EIA shows no expectation of saturation affecting the fleet size. Consequently — as shown on the right — the EIA predicts a rapid rise in demand through 2030, in sharp contrast with ExxonMobil’s view.