world energy demand – primary energy supplies

In assessing the global energy picture, it is important to recognize the expected contribution of all primary energy sources.

Oil, driven by transportation and industrial demand, is expected to increase at 1.2 percent per year. Gas consumption is expected to grow at 1.7 percent per year, benefiting from the demand in power generation for efficient fuels with relatively low carbon intensity. On the other hand, demand for coal — with high carbon intensity — is likely to rise less than 1 percent per year. Nuclear will grow significantly, particularly beyond 2020.

Renewables will gain share, with a growth rate of 1.5 percent per year overall. As shown by the middle chart, most of this segment is made up of traditional biomass — wood, charcoal, dung — with relatively slow growth. Hydroelectric and geothermal energy are projected to increase at close to 2 percent per year — limited by the availability of natural sites.

In contrast, “modern” renewables — wind, solar and biofuels — are likely to grow rapidly, supported by government subsidies and mandates. Biofuels, mainly ethanol, will grow at about 8 percent per year, and wind and solar at about 10 percent per year. Certainly these increases will make these fuels more prominent than today. Even so, wind and solar combined will account for only about 1 percent of global energy demand in 2030. Adding biofuels will bring the three to a total share of approximately 2 percent.