liquids supply and demand

Global demand for liquid fuels is expected to increase from 86 MBDOE today to 116 MBDOE in 2030. These needs will be met from a variety of sources, principally oil.

The most prominent source of supply today is non-OPEC Member countries of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. crude oil and condensate. Over the outlook period, supplies will come from areas of growth — for example, Russia, the Caspian region, and Brazil — as well as some areas of decline, reflecting the maturity of their development, such as the U.S. and the North Sea. In total, non-OPEC crude and condensate supply is likely to reflect a long plateau with a modest downturn after 2020.

Oil sands output will grow rapidly, both from mining and in-situ developments. Supplies are expected to increase from 1 MBD in 2005 to more than 4 MBD in 2030.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) will increase as gas supplies grow. OPEC condensate will add more than 1 MBD, reaching over 3 MBD in 2030. Other supplies will include gas-to-liquids, expected to rise to about 1 MBD, and coal-to-liquids, which will contribute modestly through demonstration plants. Refinery processing gains will also add to increased supplies.

Biofuel supplies, primarily ethanol from corn and sugar cane, are likely to increase to about 3 MBDOE over the outlook. Biofuel production is growing rapidly, but from a small base, and so supplies are likely to meet less than 3 percent of global liquids demand in 2030.

Making up the remainder of supplies is OPEC crude supply, which is expected to rise from about 30 MBD today to about 45 to 50 MBD by 2030. Given the sizeable resource base and the capabilities of the industry, meeting this requirement is feasible — however, access to resources and timely investments remain vital to reliable, affordable supplies.