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global commercial transportation
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Economic progress will remain a strong driver of energy demand for commercial transportation over the outlook period. As shown, energy use is expected to increase 2.3 percent per year on average.
Fuel demand for heavy duty vehicles is likely to grow at 2.2 percent per year, lower than historical rates, in part due to continuing efficiency gains. This segment will continue to represent about 60 percent of total commercial transportation demand.
Aviation and marine demand are expected to grow at 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent per year, respectively — close to the overall average.
Rail demand will increase slowly, reversing its downward trend as economies seek to develop its use as a fuel-efficient, alternative transportation mode. This is consistent with the modest growth of rail in recent years.
