global residential / commercial demand

Residential/commercial represents the final major demand category, with its share of global primary energy being slightly over 15 percent today. The split between residential and commercial demand globally is approximately 85 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

As shown on the chart, OECD OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Member Countries (30) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States residential demand is expected to stay flat, with energy efficiency gains helping offset the impact of a modest increase in total population. Commercial demand is expected to grow slowly as the economy expands. Total OECD residential/commercial demand will be nearly constant going forward.

On the right, it’s clear that this segment of non-OECD demand is dominated by residential energy use related to about 80 percent of the world’s population. Residential demand is expected to grow at just below 1 percent per year, considerably faster than in the OECD, even as more efficient technologies are gradually adopted over the outlook period. Still, despite faster growth, per-capita residential energy use in the non-OECD will remain well below OECD levels through 2030. Commercial demand is expected to increase more rapidly at about 1.8 percent per year, reflecting strong economic expansion. The overall rate of demand growth for non-OECD residential/commercial is expected to be about 1 percent per year to 2030.

On a global basis, residential/commercial demand is expected to rise close to 0.7 percent per year, though its share of primary energy will fall below 15 percent.