world energy and CO₂ emissions

As indicated throughout this report, the growth in energy demand will be much more pronounced in the non-OECD countries, reflecting a large population base with rapidly rising economic prosperity. Given the anticipated fuel mix powering this economic expansion, CO₂ emissions are expected to increase as well. This page and the one that follows examine these energy and emission trends.

In the OECD OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Member Countries (30) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, overall energy demand growth (top left on chart) is expected to be relatively modest at 0.5 percent per year, with coal shrinking in share. In the non-OECD, by comparison, much stronger growth in the need for energy is expected, consistent with faster-growing populations and economies. There is also much more growth in the use of coal, the most carbon-intensive of the major fuels.

As a result of these energy trends, energy-related CO₂ emissions in the OECD (bottom left on chart) are anticipated to be almost flat. Growth that occurs in energy demand is expected to be offset by a decrease in overall carbon intensity of energy use.

However, in the non-OECD, energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to increase at a rate of almost 2 percent per year, reflecting the tremendous need for power generation, transportation and industrial fuels — and the strong growth in all fossil fuels. As a result, non-OECD countries will represent close to 95 percent of the annual growth in energy-related global CO₂ emissions over the outlook.

Global growth in CO₂ emissions and a selection of "sensitivities" illustrating the challenges in reducing emissions are on the next page.